How to Build a Winning Sports Betting Model
Despite being made nationally legal only three years ago, sports betting generated a whopping $3 billion worth of revenue in the first ten months of 2021. Sports betting presents the perfect opportunity for sports lovers to make money from what they love most. You’ve probably heard of people making hundreds of thousands of dollars from sports betting.
While these tales of glory are titillating, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows with sports betting. Your hard-earned cash could go down the gutter without a suitable sports betting model. We recommend building a concrete betting model before going all-in on your sports bet.
If you’re having trouble building a winning betting model, we’re here to help. In today’s post, we’ll show you how to create a sports betting model that converts.
What Is a Sports Betting Model?
A sports betting model is a systematic and structured model that uses statistics and reference points to determine the probability of specific outcomes in a game. It aims to highlight promising betting opportunities and capitalize on them.
These models heavily rely on statistics, spreadsheets, databases, and other crucial reference points. They paint a clearer picture of a specific team’s or player’s potential in a given match. This makes them much better than the bookmarkers you find on betting sites.
How to Create a Solid Sports Betting Model.
Now that you know what a betting model is, let’s look at how you can create one for yourself. To create a winning betting model, follow the below steps.
Define Your Aim for the Betting Model
The first thing you want to do is have a clear aim for your betting model. Of course, the aim is to get money, but you need to be more specific. You need to lock down on the sport, game, team, and even specific players.
Without a definite aim, the numbers might get the best of you, and you could lose track of your goals. Clearly define what you aim for before proceeding to the next step. Let these aims guide you through the rest of the process.
Pick a Metric
Things get a little complicated in the next step because you have to pick a metric. You could choose something like the number of goals, the number of home wins, or away wins. Anything goes as long as it’s a sensible metric that holds weight.
Collect and Modify Data
Accurate data forms the core of any proper betting model. For the third step, you’ll want to collect as much relevant data as you can. You can either collect the data yourself or use data from online sources.
The internet is an incredible resource for all the data you need for your model. Some websites will give you the data for free, while others will charge you. We recommend the latter because they’re more likely to have accurate and credible data.
Once you have all the data you need, the next step is to modify it for only what you need. For instance, if you’re analyzing soccer teams, do you want all soccer teams or only those in a particular league? Modifying your data to only those that apply brings you closer to your aim.
Learn Probability Theory
Although it’s downright dull, learning probability theory is mandatory for a concrete sports betting model. You don’t need to learn everything about it. The fundamentals will be enough to help you create a proper betting model.
You can go to the library, but the internet will do fine. Watch a few Youtube videos and try to grasp the basic concepts of probability theory. However, there’s no problem if you want to become a bookie and a probability theory whizz.
The better your understanding of probability theory, the easier it is to create your probability model.
Choose a Betting Model Form
The next step is choosing a betting model form to guide your model. This is where probability theory comes in handy. There are plenty of betting model forms to choose from, and you can even invent your own.
Once again, you can find all the betting model forms you need on the internet. For starters, you want to choose the simplest ones you can find. The complex ones might be too difficult and might end up discouraging you.
Assess the Assumptions
All betting models have assumptions that sports bettors need to circumvent. Analyze all the assumptions to understand their limitations and applications. Although these assumptions may seem trivial, they’re worth your time and attention.
Learn How to Use Spreadsheets
Spreadsheets help make building sports betting models a lot easier. They provide an easy way to manipulate figures, do simple arithmetic, and present data in charts or graph form. Learning to use spreadsheets will go a long way toward building a sports betting algorithm that translates into solid results.
Build the Sports Betting Model
The 8th step is the most crucial step because it involves building the actual betting model. For starters, you can use MS Excel or Access since they’re easier to use. Later on, you can try more advanced software like Matlab, R programming, and VBA.
You don’t have to be a programming guru to use any of this software. Watch a few video tutorials on YouTube, and you’ll be good to go.
Test the Model
The final step is testing the betting model and checking whether it translates into positive results. If there are a few flaws with your model, don’t toss it in the trash. Identify mistakes and correct them for a foolproof betting model.
Building a Sports Betting Model Simplified
The information above should make building a sports betting model a walk in the park. Use your model to improve your sports betting prediction and make a serious killing. Start building your model today.
Don’t forget to check out the other posts on the site for more informative content.